Трансформация фенологической нормы даты начала нерестовых миграций Bombina bombina и Pelophylax ridibundus (Amphibia, Anura) в среднем течении р. Медведица

   В 2023 – 2025 гг. проведен анализ дат окончания зимовки и начала нерестовых миграций жерлянки краснобрюхой и лягушки озерной на территории долины среднего течения р. Медведицы (бассейн Дона, Саратовская область). Установлено поступательное развитие весенних процессов в популяциях этих видов в 2024 г. и протекание их по типу ложной весны в 2023 и 2025 гг. Актуальные фенологические результаты были сопоставлены с ретроспективным временным рядом данных с 1892 по 2020 гг. методом реконструкции динамики среднедекадной температуры среды в зимовальных биотопах. Показана относительная стабильность фенологической нормы даты начал нерестовых миграций двух видов амфибий в период до начала эпохи глобального потепления (с 1892 по 1960 гг.), смещение этой даты на более ранние сроки в период с 1961 по 2020 гг. (на 5 сут.). В конце первой четверти XXI в. произошло резкое ускорение этого процесса (смещение на 10 сут. относительно актуальной фенологической нормы (среднее за 1991 – 2020 гг.)).

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