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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">sevin</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">ПОВОЛЖСКИЙ ЭКОЛОГИЧЕСКИЙ ЖУРНАЛ</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Povolzhskiy Journal of Ecology</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1684-7318</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2541-8963</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Федеральное государственное бюджетное учреждение науки Институт проблем экологии и эволюции им. А. Н. Северцова РАН; Товарищество научных изданий КМК.</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.35885/1684-7318-2021-3-293-309</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">sevin-278</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>Статьи</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Определение репродуктивного потенциала популяций диких копытных на территории Cаратовской области по динамическим рядам их численности</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Estimation of the growth rate of wild ungulate populations in the territory of the Saratov region by the dynamic series of their numbers</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Кондратенков</surname><given-names>И. А.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Kondratenkov</surname><given-names>I. A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Кондратенков Игорь Алексеевич - Лаборатория экологии наземных позвоночных степной зоны</p><p>410028, г. Саратов, ул. Рабочая, д. 24</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Igor A. Kondratenkov</p><p>24 Rabochaya St., Saratov 410028</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">kondri60@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8575-5418</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Опарин</surname><given-names>М. Л.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Oparin</surname><given-names>M. L.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Опарин Михаил Львович</p><p>410028, г. Саратов, ул. Рабочая, д. 24</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Mikhail L. Oparin</p><p>24 Rabochaya St., Saratov 410028</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">oparinml@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5581-4122</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Опарина</surname><given-names>О. С.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Oparina</surname><given-names>O. S.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Опарина Ольга Сергеевна</p><p>410028, г. Саратов, ул. Рабочая, д. 24</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Olga S. Oparina</p><p>24 Rabochaya St., Saratov 410028</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">otis07@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Сухов</surname><given-names>С. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Sukhov</surname><given-names>S. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Сухов Сергей Валентинович</p><p>410012, г. Саратов, ул. Университетская, д. 45/51</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Sergey V. Sukhov</p><p>45/51 Universitetskaya St., Saratov 410012</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">oparinml@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Саратовский филиал Института проблем экологии и эволюции им. А. Н. Северцова РАН</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Saratov branch of A. N. Severtsov Institute of Ecology and Evolution, Russian Academy of Sciences</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-2"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Комитет охотничьего хозяйства и рыболовства Саратовской области</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Committee of Hunting and Fishing of the Saratov Region</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2021</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>23</day><month>11</month><year>2021</year></pub-date><volume>0</volume><issue>3</issue><fpage>293</fpage><lpage>309</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Кондратенков И.А., Опарин М.Л., Опарина О.С., Сухов С.В., 2021</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2021</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Кондратенков И.А., Опарин М.Л., Опарина О.С., Сухов С.В.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Kondratenkov I.A., Oparin M.L., Oparina O.S., Sukhov S.V.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://sevin.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/278">https://sevin.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/278</self-uri><abstract><p>Настоящее исследование посвящено изучению возможности определения репродуктивных потенциалов популяций диких копытных (и, вероятно, других крупных млекопитающих) по динамическим рядам их численности. Было выяснено, что такой подход можно использовать, это подтверждается качеством аппроксимации динамических рядов численности логистическими кривыми, а соответствующие коэффициенты их детерминации для разных видов составили от 75 до 96%. Для таких расчетов необходимо одно обстоятельство, которое заключается в том, чтобы популяция исследуемого вида кратковременно подверглась действию некоторого неблагоприятного фактора, вызывающего значительное сокращение ее численности с последующим восстановлением до прежнего уровня, или динамический ряд должен содержать хорошо выраженный и протяженный участок перехода популяции от некоторого нижнего к верхнему уровню численности, переходящему в стационарное состояние. Значения максимальных экспоненциальных скоростей роста численности популяций копытных, полученные авторами статьи, принципиально не отличаются от данных, имеющихся в работах других исследователей. Кроме этого, нужно учитывать, что метод оценки репродуктивных потенциалов копытных, предложенный авторами статьи, является статистическим, с сопутствующими всем таким методам особенностями, например наличием статистических ошибок во всех определяемых параметрах. Определение величин этих ошибок является темой отдельного исследования.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>The present paper is devoted to the study of the possibility of estimating the reproductive potentials of wild ungulate populations, and possibly other large mammals, by the time series of their numbers. We have found out that this is possible, which is confirmed by the high quality of approximation of the time series of abundance by logistic curves, and the corresponding coefficients of their determination for different species ranged from 75 to 96%. For such calculations, one circumstance is necessary, which is that the population of the studied species has been briefly exposed to some unfavorable factor causing a significant reduction in its numbers with subsequent restoration to the previous level, or the time series should contain a well-expressed and extended section of the transition of the population from some lower level to the upper level of the population, passing into a stationary state. The values of the maximum exponential growth rates of ungulate populations that we obtained do not fundamentally differ from the data available in other researchers’ works. In addition, it should be borne in mind that our method for assessing the reproductive potentials of ungulates is statistical, with features accompanying all such methods, for example, in the presence of statistical errors in all determined parameters. However, the evaluation of the magnitude of these errors is a topic for a separate study. </p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>репродуктивный потенциал</kwd><kwd>динамические ряды численности популяций</kwd><kwd>копытные</kwd><kwd>охотничьи ресурсы</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Базыкин А. Д. Математическая биофизика взаимодействующих популяций. М. : Наука, 1985. 182 с.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Bazykin A. D. Matematicheskaya biofizika vzaimodeystvuyushchikh populyatsiy [Mathematical Biophysics of Interacting Populations]. Moscow, Nauka Publ., 1985 182 p. (in Russian).</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit2"><label>2</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Братусь А. С., Новожилов А. С., Платонов А. П. Динамические системы и модели в биологии. 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